Esade advises against lowering

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This also shows the pre-pandemic (exponential) trends for the individual variables behind the household savings rate. This way of analyzing “excess savings” has been popular for the last 1-2 years. But in the most recent Fed staff document that Deutsche Bank refers to, a method applied to the aggregate savings rate is used. I don't want to speculate, but maybe there are some caveats with the method that caused DB to fail. Finally, here is a graph with the resulting estimate of “excess savings” in Sweden. The exact results will always be open to debate, since excess savings is not an exactly defined concept, but I am sure that this representation offers a fairly reasonable picture of what the Swedish statistics, and the analysis of the base of data was wrong.

There is a specter that wanders whenever economic experts debate economic policy right now. And, although few dare to name it, it is that of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss. Her sudden tax cut, which she implemented Job Function Email Database when she became Downing Street in 2022, cost her not only punishment from the markets but also the job itself. When examining the case of Spain, when the general elections are just a few days away and the candidates make promises, the Esade experts, in their Economic and Financial Report , prepared with the support of Banc Sabadell, which they presented this Thursday, advised against the option of lower taxes. The public aid plan, the revaluation of pensions and the war in Ukraine have increased the public debt bill and the experts gathered by Esade believe that it is necessary to move towards fiscal consolidation.



Everything indicates that the second semester will be worse than the first due to the weakness of private consumption For Toni Roldán, director of EsadeEcPol, it is necessary to convey confidence to the markets that some adjustment is going to occur, otherwise the markets would be scared and would have to pay more to finance themselves in international markets. Professor Josep Maria Comajuncosa also considers that there are European ties that must be respected and fulfilled. “In this context, it is absolutely necessary to normalize fiscal policies with the aim of reducing deficit and public debt levels, particularly now that unconventional monetary policies no longer keep the costs of this debt low. This is crucial to free up more fiscal space, since in the future it may be necessary to increase certain social items, in investments for the technological transition or for the fight against climate change,” the report states.